This alert expired on 16 March 2026 at 17:15 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 4th strongest of the 122 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 16 March 2026. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 7 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued March 16 at 1:05PM EDT until March 16 at 1:15PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC
An estimated 3,475,451 people live within 50 km of this point.
Nearby, since 16 March 2026
- March 16, 2026 · score 52 · 2.7 km
- July 7, 2026 · score 52 · 5.8 km
- August 10, 2026 · score 52 · 6.4 km
How we know
Confirmed by 9 independent sources, including NOAA.
Our own score for this event is 52 out of 100, at 87 % confidence.
The score is ours, computed from intensity, exposed population and local history — not the source’s.
Event Data
| Type | Severe weather |
| Severity | medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 52 / 100 |
| Our confidence | 87% |
| Coordinates | 38.6721, -77.3742 |
| Nearest City | Dale City (7 km) |
| Population Exposed | 3.5M within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-03-16T17:05:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/merged_Severe Thunderstorm Warning_noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.1cb0823c4bc8876b175e5b63d0a1ed1e |
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Severe Thunderstorm Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Montgomery, MD; Arlington, VA; Fairfax, VA; Prince William, VA; City of Fairfax, VA; City of Falls Church, VA; Culpeper, VA; Fauquier, VA; Orange, VA; Spotsylvania, VA; Stafford, VA; City of Fredericksburg, VA |
| Headline | Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued March 16 at 1:05PM EDT until March 16 at 1:15PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| Expires | 2026-03-16T13:15:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 2 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.1cb0823c4bc8876b175e5b63d0a1ed1ef2bf47d4.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.8f357e29d737bb5fabae6a8973f8ad07fff8bb7e.002.1"] |
| Spc ReportType | wind |
| Spc Speed | UNK |
| Spc Location | 2 SW Damascus |
| Spc County | Montgomery |
| Spc State | MD |
| Spc Comments | Wirss down at the intersection of Ridge Rd. and Kakae Dr. (LWX) |
| Google News RssFeed | weather |
| Google News SourceName | Secret DC |
| MergedSources | [{"id":"spc_wind_39.19_-77.59_71","source":"spc","severity":"medium","severityValue":45,"timestamp":1773674280000,"latitude":39.19,"longitude":-77.59},{"id":"spc_wind_39.21_-77.42_72","source":"spc","severity":"medium","severityValue":45,"timestamp":1773674760000,"latitude":39.21,"longitude":-77.42},{"id":"spc_wind_39.23_-77.26_74","source":"spc","severity":"medium","severityValue":45,"timestamp":1773675720000,"latitude":39.23,"longitude":-77.26},{"id":"spc_wind_39.25_-77.24_75","source":"spc","severity":"medium","severityValue":45,"timestamp":1773676080000,"latitude":39.25,"longitude":-77.24},{"id":"spc_wind_39.26_-77.23_76","source":"spc","severity":"medium","severityValue":45,"timestamp":1773676200000,"latitude":39.26,"longitude":-77.23},{"id":"gnews_weather_492686_155","source":"google_news","severity":"medium","severityValue":40,"timestamp":1773672660000,"latitude":38.9,"longitude":-77.04},{"id":"gnews_weather_492688_163","source":"google_news","severity":"medium","severityValue":40,"timestamp":1773678999000,"latitude":38.9,"longitude":-77.04},{"id":"gnews_weather_492688_167","source":"google_news","severity":"medium","severityValue":40,"timestamp":1773677605000,"latitude":38.9,"longitude":-77.04}] |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 10 February 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Calamity.live data shows a weather event with CalamityScore 52/100, near Dale City (United States), based on data from noaa. Source: Calamity.live, a platform aggregating real-time data from 188 scientific monitoring sources.